Hans Rosling at TEDIndia on India and China 139.0
Economic and social convergence with USA by 2048
At the inaugural TEDIndia event, Hans Rosling, a notable statistician, says that China and India will catch up with the United States on July 27, 2048 which just happens to be his 100 birthday.
He starts his time series from 1858, a notable year in technology and geo-political economy. Through to the present, the interesting information from his beautiful presentation was the effect of wars and of independence and sovereignty for countries in catch-up mode.
Another interesting tidbit is that catch-up countries do not really pass the leaders; the growth rate slows in typical system dynamics when the catching up countries converge with the leaders as with Japan. The effect of China and India opening up and entering the global markets is visible as well as the dot.com bust and the 2007 financial crisis.
The obvious question is what statistics on the Philippines would have shown. To quote President Quezon, the Philippines seem to be a country “run like hell by Filipinos …”
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