Opportunities from Changes In the Environment 2 of 2

While seemingly cataclysmic, the three expected causes of rice yield loss also present opportunities. On causes of yield loss, …

(Start of Part 2 of 2)

Firstly, the temperature increase of 4.8% will result into heat stress on rice thus directly reducing yield. Please imagine summer temperatures in Manila at 39C. That is the temperature, for example, in New Delhi on summer.

Secondly, the change will result into variations in precipitation resulting into more droughts, floods and typhoons. Rises in temperature will create more high-pressure areas, and consequently, greater drops in low pressure points as well. To quote from the report, an “A1-mid and A2-high scenarios for 2080 indicate an increase in typhoon intensities in the western Pacific by 5% and 10%, respectively.” A side consequence of this change will be the rise of diseases and pandemics.

Lastly, climate change will result into rising sea levels which at the worst case scenario of 4.8C by 2100 will rise by 70 centimeters. To quote from the report, “an A2-high scenario … shows a 100-cm rise in sea level by 2080, will inundate over 5,000 ha of the Manila Bay coastal area and will affect over 2.5 million people.” While some areas may not be reached by seawater, salt intrusion can also be disastrous to production yields.

We do look at these cataclysmic prognostications with a different eye: as a source of innovation opportunities.

The general theme of innovative opportunity is that the change in environment will remake agriculture and food production as opportunity areas. For food, the new rice varieties will have embedded knowledge from R&D. Likewise, the cultivation methods – like that of Mr Severino Payumo’s of Nueva Ecija whose one hectare farm yielded 17.3 MT this year – have embedded knowledge. (See Post #46 – #47.)

Unfortunately, the Philippine political economy is not friendly to agriculture. So, in the meantime, we have to work to make it so – a general goal for this blog. Improving agricultural productivity and land use in the Philippines is the opportunity.

First, on heat stress, scientists are already working on new varieties that survive at high temperatures. We can, for example as we indicated in Post #10, work side by side doing adaptive R&D to develop cultivation practices at pilot farms in high land rather than paddies.

Second, on precipitation changes, the obvious opportunity comes with location. Mindanao becomes the land of promise again. Even with these changes, it may continue to be typhoon free. Higher elevation areas like Bukidnon will be especially benefited. The Mt Apo to Mt Matutom corridor as well as Sultan Kudarat can become opportunity areas as well.

Lastly, rising sea levels will also create new locational opportunities. New city areas can become feasible. Production and distribution of drinking water will be a big opportunity area. The cultivation and processing of higher value-added, ie knowledge-embedded, farm products are the way to go.

The future is very near. In the meantime, we need to make Filipinos richer and the country stronger to survive as a nation in a region to be dominated by China and India. We will need to find a modus vivendi with other ASEAN countries. Sadly, our eyes are mostly focused on our navels and our minds on getting a bigger share of a diminishing economic pie …
(Click here for Post 1 of 2.)