SYNTHESiST Surveys on Philippine Financial Problems 168.0

A screening poll for SYNTHESiST readers to know ourselves more
I have created a screening survey below (on 2/2 posted on Sidebar, too.) to know how the group’s choices affect innovation, in the long term.

Please choose one answer as honestly as you can. Your choice represents an important part of the collective voice of our readership.

I intend to use the poll results in analyzing the candidates for President’s campaign platform and as signal for direction of future posts in the blog.

To access the poll …

In 2009, the Philippines had a dismal financial performance with public sector deficit at -3.74% and the public sector debt at 62.3% of GDP, respectively.

I have not included two options, borrow some more or sell more state assets, that may well be the short term strategy of the new President. They are not fundamental and only buy time.

I have not heard the candidates being challenged with regards to how they intend to fund the accomplishment of their campaign promises. And yet, this is probably the first issue the new President will need to address.

If there is n clear mandate or if the election fails, in a big way, because of automation, not a problem to me, or more critically to my mind, failure to manage congestion because nobody sees the problem, then improving the financial situation may not happen.

The consequence will be a crisis that dumps the peso and stats a new cycle of bust.

The Arroyo administration has done so in the following ways:

• increasing VAT to 12% from 10% during an earlier funding emergency
• borrowing heavily reaching the peak in 2009 after a period of repayment and spending cuts
• allowing the budget deficit to reach Pesos 300 billion or 62.3% of GDP in 2009
• selling state assets like power generation facilities through privatization

Would you wish more of the same or something different with the new President? Let us ask.

The right mix will have implications on the value of the peso with these two variables being the prime determinant of the foreign exchange rate.

Indirectly, a poor choice harms the innovators by pulling the value of the peso down and making the returns and hurdle rate much more difficult to reach especially because innovation projects have long gestation periods.

A less than ideal choice will condemn us perpetually to the ‘emerging market’ phase and to the weak strategy of exporting our labor to achieve a measure of prosperity.